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Laos vs Myanmar — AFF Championship 2018

Laos
Laos
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Myanmar
Myanmar
11/16/2018AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 3New Laos National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Laos33%
×Draw22%
Myanmar45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laos
1.69
Myanmar
2.00

Myanmar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Laos
0.50
Myanmar
0.75

allows per match

Laos
3.25
Myanmar
2.88

finishing

Laos+0.00on par
Myanmar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laos ↓

Myanmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Laos or draw
55%
Laos or Myanmar
78%
Draw or Myanmar
67%

Winning margin

Laos wins by 2+
16%
Myanmar wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Laos 1+ goals
82%
Laos 2+ goals
50%
Laos 3+ goals
24%
Myanmar 1+ goals
86%
Myanmar 2+ goals
59%
Myanmar 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Laos (draw refunded)
42%
Myanmar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laos at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Myanmar away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laos attack 0.50 + Myanmar defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Myanmar attack 0.75 + Laos defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Laos scores more
33%
level
22%
Myanmar scores more
45%

Myanmar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Myanmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Laos 1 – 3 Myanmar

Myanmar beat Laos 3-1 in AFF Championship on November 16, 2018.

The match was played at New Laos National Stadium in Vientiane.