Myanmar 2–1 Afghanistan: Result & Stats

Myanmar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Afghanistan

M. M. Lwin 75'

T. Paing 28'

O. Popalzay 14'

3/25/2025

Asian Cup - Qualification · 3rd Round - 1Thuwunna Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Myanmar44%

×Draw25%

Afghanistan31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MyanmarExpected goals in this matchAfghanistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.22

Myanmar

1.50

Afghanistan

1.22

Myanmar creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

0.57

1.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Myanmar

1.00

Afghanistan

0.57

allows per match

Myanmar

1.88

Afghanistan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Myanmar+0.00on par

Afghanistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar ↓

Afghanistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Myanmar or draw

69%

Myanmar or Afghanistan

75%

Draw or Afghanistan

56%

Winning margin

Myanmar wins by 2+

21%

Afghanistan wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Myanmar 1+ goals

78%

Myanmar 2+ goals

44%

Myanmar 3+ goals

19%

Afghanistan 1+ goals

70%

Afghanistan 2+ goals

34%

Afghanistan 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Myanmar (draw refunded)

59%

Afghanistan (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Afghanistan away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar attack 1.00 + Afghanistan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Afghanistan attack 0.57 + Myanmar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Myanmar scores more

44%

level

25%

Afghanistan scores more

31%

Myanmar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Myanmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Amanullah

14'

O. Popalzay↳ O. Musawi

21'

S. Zurmati

28'

T. Paing↳ M. M. Lwin

59'

Naing Oakkar← Hein Htet Aung

59'

Aung Ye Yint← T. Zaw

64'

Naing Oakkar

64'

M. Hanifi← S. Amanullah

68'

Min Zwe Khant← Win Hein Phyo

68'

Oo Min Maw← K. Oo

69'

F. Zada← F. Sadat

75'

M. M. Lwin↳ Naing Oakkar

88'

O. Musawi

89'

H. Amiri← O. Musawi

90'

R. Akbari

90+4'

Aung Naing Win← Aung Lwin Moe

Myanmar

Afghanistan

1

Azizi

3

▼

Amanullah

12

Haidary

6

Askar

19

⚽

10

5

14

20

▼

Sadat

7

Ahadi

9

A

▼

23

17

5

2

▼

Phyo

4

Kyaw

6

▼

Oo

7

▼

Moe

19

▼

Aung

10

▼

Zaw

9

⚽

Paing

11

⚽A

Lwin

Manager: Michael Feichtenbeiner

59'▲Naing Oakkar←▼Hein Htet Aung

59'▲Aung Ye Yint←▼T. Zaw

68'▲Min Zwe Khant←▼Win Hein Phyo

68'▲Oo Min Maw←▼K. Oo

90+4'▲Aung Naing Win←▼Aung Lwin Moe

Myanmar substitutes

1Sat18Lin3Hein15Khant20Lin8Zin13Win14Maw22Win12Oakkar16Kaung21Yint

Manager: Vincenzo Annese

64'▲M. Hanifi←▼S. Amanullah

69'▲F. Zada←▼F. Sadat

89'▲H. Amiri←▼O. Musawi

Afghanistan substitutes

22Hamidi2Safari4Hanifi15Rahimi18Amiri23Ghafoori17Zada

Asian Cup - Qualification: Myanmar 2–1 Afghanistan

Myanmar beat Afghanistan 2-1 in Asian Cup - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

Goals: O. Popalzay (14'), T. Paing (28'), M. M. Lwin (75').

The match was played at Thuwunna Stadium in Yangon.

Myanmar vs Afghanistan — Asian Cup - Qualification 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Asian Cup - Qualification: Myanmar 2–1 Afghanistan