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Myanmar U19 vs Laos U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Myanmar U19
Myanmar U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Laos U19
Laos U19
S. W. Aung 17'
P. Panyavong 82'
7/21/2024AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Stadion Gelora 10 November

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Myanmar U1927%
×Draw25%
Laos U1948%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar U19
1.13
Laos U19
1.58

Laos U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Myanmar U19
1.50
Laos U19
1.00

allows per match

Myanmar U19
2.17
Laos U19
0.75

finishing

Myanmar U19+0.00on par
Laos U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar U19 ↓

Laos U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Myanmar U19 or draw
52%
Myanmar U19 or Laos U19
75%
Draw or Laos U19
73%

Winning margin

Myanmar U19 wins by 2+
11%
Laos U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Myanmar U19 1+ goals
68%
Myanmar U19 2+ goals
31%
Myanmar U19 3+ goals
11%
Laos U19 1+ goals
79%
Laos U19 2+ goals
47%
Laos U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Myanmar U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Laos U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Laos U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar U19 attack 1.50 + Laos U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Laos U19 attack 1.00 + Myanmar U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Myanmar U19 scores more
27%
level
25%
Laos U19 scores more
48%

Laos U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Laos U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
S. W. Aung
82'
P. Panyavong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Myanmar U19 1–1 Laos U19

Myanmar U19 and Laos U19 drew 1-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 21, 2024.

Goals: S. W. Aung (17'), P. Panyavong (82').

The match was played at Stadion Gelora 10 November in Surabaya.