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Myanmar U19 vs Brunei U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Myanmar U19
Myanmar U19
FT
7 – 0
Brunei U19
Brunei U19
7/2/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Myanmar U1983%
×Draw10%
Brunei U197%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar U19
3.75
Brunei U19
1.08

Myanmar U19 creates 247% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Myanmar U19
1.50
Brunei U19
0.00

allows per match

Myanmar U19
2.17
Brunei U19
6.00

finishing

Myanmar U19+0.00on par
Brunei U19+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar U19 ↓

Brunei U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Myanmar U19 or draw
93%
Myanmar U19 or Brunei U19
90%
Draw or Brunei U19
17%

Winning margin

Myanmar U19 wins by 2+
67%
Brunei U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Myanmar U19 1+ goals
97%
Myanmar U19 2+ goals
88%
Myanmar U19 3+ goals
70%
Brunei U19 1+ goals
66%
Brunei U19 2+ goals
29%
Brunei U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Myanmar U19 (draw refunded)
92%
Brunei U19 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Brunei U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 6.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar U19 attack 1.50 + Brunei U19 defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Brunei U19 attack 0.00 + Myanmar U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Myanmar U19 scores more
83%
level
10%
Brunei U19 scores more
7%

Myanmar U19 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Myanmar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Myanmar U19 7–0 Brunei U19

Myanmar U19 beat Brunei U19 7-0 in AFF U19 Championship on July 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta.