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Myanmar U17 vs Oman U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023

Myanmar U17
Myanmar U17
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oman U17
Oman U17
11/28/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Myanmar U1753%
×Draw24%
Oman U1723%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Myanmar U17
1.67
Oman U17
1.00

Myanmar U17 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Myanmar U17
1.67
Oman U17
1.33

allows per match

Myanmar U17
0.67
Oman U17
1.67

finishing

Myanmar U17+0.00on par
Oman U17+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Myanmar U17 ↓

Oman U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Myanmar U17 or draw
77%
Myanmar U17 or Oman U17
76%
Draw or Oman U17
47%

Winning margin

Myanmar U17 wins by 2+
29%
Oman U17 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Myanmar U17 1+ goals
81%
Myanmar U17 2+ goals
50%
Myanmar U17 3+ goals
23%
Oman U17 1+ goals
63%
Oman U17 2+ goals
26%
Oman U17 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Myanmar U17 (draw refunded)
70%
Oman U17 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Myanmar U17 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Oman U17 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Myanmar U17 attack 1.67 + Oman U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Oman U17 attack 1.33 + Myanmar U17 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Myanmar U17 scores more
53%
level
24%
Oman U17 scores more
23%

Myanmar U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Myanmar U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Myanmar U17 vs Oman U17

Myanmar U17 beat Oman U17 2-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on November 28, 2025.