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MWOS vs Yadah — Premier Soccer League 2026

MWOS
MWOS
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yadah
Yadah
3/15/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

MWOS48%
×Draw29%
Yadah22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MWOS
1.26
Yadah
0.76

MWOS creates 66% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 85 away

creates per match

MWOS
1.18
Yadah
0.82

allows per match

MWOS
0.71
Yadah
1.34

finishing

MWOS+0.00on par
Yadah+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MWOS ↓

Yadah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

MWOS or draw
78%
MWOS or Yadah
71%
Draw or Yadah
52%

Winning margin

MWOS wins by 2+
22%
Yadah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

MWOS 1+ goals
72%
MWOS 2+ goals
36%
MWOS 3+ goals
13%
Yadah 1+ goals
53%
Yadah 2+ goals
18%
Yadah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

MWOS (draw refunded)
68%
Yadah (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MWOS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Yadah away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MWOS attack 1.18 + Yadah defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Yadah attack 0.82 + MWOS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

MWOS scores more
48%
level
29%
Yadah scores more
22%

MWOS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "MWOS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MWOS vs Yadah

MWOS beat Yadah 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.