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MWOS vs Kwekwe United — Premier Soccer League 2026

MWOS
MWOS
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kwekwe United
Kwekwe United
5/17/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 12Ngoni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

MWOS72%
×Draw19%
Kwekwe United9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MWOS
1.97
Kwekwe United
0.53

MWOS creates 272% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

creates per match

MWOS
1.18
Kwekwe United
0.35

allows per match

MWOS
0.71
Kwekwe United
2.76

finishing

MWOS+0.00on par
Kwekwe United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MWOS ↓

Kwekwe United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

MWOS or draw
91%
MWOS or Kwekwe United
81%
Draw or Kwekwe United
28%

Winning margin

MWOS wins by 2+
45%
Kwekwe United wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

MWOS 1+ goals
86%
MWOS 2+ goals
58%
MWOS 3+ goals
31%
Kwekwe United 1+ goals
41%
Kwekwe United 2+ goals
10%
Kwekwe United 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

MWOS (draw refunded)
89%
Kwekwe United (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MWOS at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Kwekwe United away — creates 0.35, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MWOS attack 1.18 + Kwekwe United defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 1.97

Kwekwe United attack 0.35 + MWOS defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

MWOS scores more
72%
level
19%
Kwekwe United scores more
9%

MWOS at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "MWOS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MWOS vs Kwekwe United

MWOS beat Kwekwe United 4-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Ngoni Stadium in Norton.