Mwadui 3–4 Gwambina: Result & Stats | Ligi kuu Bara

Mwadui

FT

3 – 4

Gwambina

I. Ally 62'

S. Chubi 39'

H. Masenga 15'

J. Massawe 66', 26'

I. Meshack 45'

J. Stephen 6'

11/25/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 11Mwadui Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mwadui41%

×Draw28%

Gwambina32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MwaduiExpected goals in this matchGwambina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.09

Mwadui

1.28

Gwambina

1.09

Mwadui creates 17% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

1.03

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Mwadui

1.03

Gwambina

0.94

allows per match

Mwadui

1.25

Gwambina

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mwadui+0.00on par

Gwambina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mwadui ↓

Gwambina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mwadui or draw

68%

Mwadui or Gwambina

72%

Draw or Gwambina

59%

Winning margin

Mwadui wins by 2+

18%

Gwambina wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mwadui 1+ goals

72%

Mwadui 2+ goals

37%

Mwadui 3+ goals

14%

Gwambina 1+ goals

66%

Gwambina 2+ goals

30%

Gwambina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mwadui (draw refunded)

56%

Gwambina (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mwadui at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Gwambina away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mwadui attack 1.03 + Gwambina defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.28

Gwambina attack 0.94 + Mwadui defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mwadui scores more

41%

level

28%

Gwambina scores more

32%

Mwadui at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mwadui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Stephen

15'

H. Masenga

26'

J. Massawe

39'

S. Chubi

45'

I. Meshack

62'

I. Ally

66'

J. Massawe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff