MVV 2–0 VVV Venlo: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

MVV

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

VVV Venlo

S. Braken 88'

I. Silva Timas 2'

10/13/2024

Eerste Divisie · Round 10De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

MVV37%

×Draw22%

VVV Venlo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MVVExpected goals in this matchVVV Venlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.79

MVV

1.70

VVV Venlo

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.39

creates per match

1.70

1.89

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

MVV

1.39

VVV Venlo

1.70

allows per match

MVV

1.89

VVV Venlo

2.01

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

MVV+0.21scores more

VVV Venlo-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

VVV Venlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

MVV or draw

59%

MVV or VVV Venlo

78%

Draw or VVV Venlo

63%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+

19%

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals

82%

MVV 2+ goals

51%

MVV 3+ goals

24%

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

83%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

53%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)

48%

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.89 · 5 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.01 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.39 + VVV Venlo defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.70

VVV Venlo attack 1.70 + MVV defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

MVV scores more

37%

level

22%

VVV Venlo scores more

41%

VVV Venlo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VVV Venlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. de Boer

VVV Venlo · G

8.2

Match Events

2'

I. Silva Timas

37'

Ozgur Aktas

46'

L. Wehmeyer← M. Berden

46'

P. Pöpperl← M. de Waal

60'

S. Penders← M. Kleinen

60'

G. Blancquart← R. Ketting

64'

Camil Mmaee

71'

P. Doesburg← T. Braem

71'

E. Gyamfi← D. van Zutphen

73'

S. Braken← C. Mmaee

73'

R. Esajas← A. Kassimi

79'

Roel Janssen

83'

Wout Coomans

85'

F. Slegers← I. Silva Timas

85'

S. Francis← B. Smeets

88'

S. Braken↳ L. Schenk

90+1'

Roel Janssen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MVVVVV

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots25

6Corners8

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots25

8On Target3

2Off Target12

2Blocked10

8Inside Box12

4Outside Box13

Passing

45%Possession55%

402Total Passes458

326Accurate Passes401

81%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

MVV 2 – 0 VVV Venlo

MVV beat VVV Venlo 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 13, 2024.

Goals: I. Silva Timas (2'), S. Braken (88').

VVV Venlo controlled possession (55%) and registered 25 shots to 12.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.

MVV vs VVV Venlo — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MVV 2 – 0 VVV Venlo