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MVV vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

MVV
MVV
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Roda
Roda
2/1/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 24De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

MVV42%
×Draw24%
Roda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MVV
1.63
Roda
1.46

MVV creates 12% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 148 away

creates per match

MVV
1.65
Roda
1.38

allows per match

MVV
1.54
Roda
1.61

finishing

MVV+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

MVV or draw
66%
MVV or Roda
76%
Draw or Roda
58%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+
21%
Roda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals
80%
MVV 2+ goals
48%
MVV 3+ goals
22%
Roda 1+ goals
77%
Roda 2+ goals
43%
Roda 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)
55%
Roda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.54 · 147 matches

Roda away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.65 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Roda attack 1.38 + MVV defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

MVV scores more
42%
level
24%
Roda scores more
34%

MVV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "MVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: MVV vs Roda

MVV beat Roda 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.