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MVV vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

MVV
MVV
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
11/19/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

MVV38%
×Draw24%
NAC Breda38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MVV
1.59
NAC Breda
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 90 away

creates per match

MVV
1.65
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

MVV
1.54
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

MVV+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

MVV or draw
62%
MVV or NAC Breda
76%
Draw or NAC Breda
62%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+
19%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals
80%
MVV 2+ goals
47%
MVV 3+ goals
21%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
79%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
47%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)
50%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.54 · 147 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.65 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + MVV defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

MVV scores more
38%
level
24%
NAC Breda scores more
38%

MVV at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "MVV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: MVV 1–4 NAC Breda

NAC Breda beat MVV 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.