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MVV vs ADO Den Haag — Eerste Divisie 2018

MVV
MVV
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
2/23/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27De Geusselt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

MVV34%
×Draw24%
ADO Den Haag42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MVV
1.46
ADO Den Haag
1.66

ADO Den Haag creates 14% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 95 away

creates per match

MVV
1.65
ADO Den Haag
1.77

allows per match

MVV
1.54
ADO Den Haag
1.28

finishing

MVV+0.00on par
ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MVV ↓

ADO Den Haag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

MVV or draw
58%
MVV or ADO Den Haag
76%
Draw or ADO Den Haag
66%

Winning margin

MVV wins by 2+
16%
ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

MVV 1+ goals
77%
MVV 2+ goals
43%
MVV 3+ goals
18%
ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
81%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
49%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

MVV (draw refunded)
44%
ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MVV at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.54 · 147 matches

ADO Den Haag away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MVV attack 1.65 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

ADO Den Haag attack 1.77 + MVV defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

MVV scores more
34%
level
24%
ADO Den Haag scores more
42%

ADO Den Haag at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: MVV 1–4 ADO Den Haag

ADO Den Haag beat MVV 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at De Geusselt in Maastricht.