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MuurY vs Soho Jyväskylä — Suomen Cup 2018

MuurY
MuurY
FT
7 – 0
Soho Jyväskylä
Soho Jyväskylä
3/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundVehkahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MuurY53%
×Draw17%
Soho Jyväskylä30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MuurY
3.44
Soho Jyväskylä
2.63

MuurY creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

MuurY
3.20
Soho Jyväskylä
2.67

allows per match

MuurY
2.60
Soho Jyväskylä
3.67

finishing

MuurY+0.00on par
Soho Jyväskylä+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MuurY ↓

Soho Jyväskylä →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
70%30%

Double chance

MuurY or draw
70%
MuurY or Soho Jyväskylä
83%
Draw or Soho Jyväskylä
47%

Winning margin

MuurY wins by 2+
35%
Soho Jyväskylä wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

MuurY 1+ goals
97%
MuurY 2+ goals
85%
MuurY 3+ goals
65%
Soho Jyväskylä 1+ goals
93%
Soho Jyväskylä 2+ goals
73%
Soho Jyväskylä 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

MuurY (draw refunded)
64%
Soho Jyväskylä (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MuurY at home — creates 3.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Soho Jyväskylä away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MuurY attack 3.20 + Soho Jyväskylä defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.44

Soho Jyväskylä attack 2.67 + MuurY defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

MuurY scores more
53%
level
17%
Soho Jyväskylä scores more
30%

MuurY at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "MuurY will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: MuurY 7–0 Soho Jyväskylä

MuurY beat Soho Jyväskylä 7-0 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Vehkahalli in Jyväskylä.