Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

MuurY vs Marski — Suomen Cup 2018

MuurY
MuurY
FT
5 – 3
Marski
Marski
3/16/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundHuhtahalli TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

MuurY46%
×Draw18%
Marski36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MuurY
2.98
Marski
2.67

MuurY creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

MuurY
3.20
Marski
2.75

allows per match

MuurY
2.60
Marski
2.75

finishing

MuurY+0.00on par
Marski+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MuurY ↓

Marski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
65%35%

Double chance

MuurY or draw
64%
MuurY or Marski
82%
Draw or Marski
54%

Winning margin

MuurY wins by 2+
29%
Marski wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

MuurY 1+ goals
95%
MuurY 2+ goals
79%
MuurY 3+ goals
56%
Marski 1+ goals
93%
Marski 2+ goals
74%
Marski 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

MuurY (draw refunded)
56%
Marski (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
85%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MuurY at home — creates 3.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Marski away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MuurY attack 3.20 + Marski defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.98

Marski attack 2.75 + MuurY defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

MuurY scores more
46%
level
18%
Marski scores more
36%

MuurY at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "MuurY will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MuurY 5 – 3 Marski

MuurY beat Marski 5-3 in Suomen Cup on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Huhtahalli TN in Jyväskylä.