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MuurY vs Kypärämäki Rangers — Suomen Cup 2018

MuurY
MuurY
FT
1 – 3
Kypärämäki Rangers
Kypärämäki Rangers
3/23/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundVehkahalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

MuurY14%
×Draw13%
Kypärämäki Rangers73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MuurY
1.77
Kypärämäki Rangers
3.88

Kypärämäki Rangers creates 119% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

MuurY
3.20
Kypärämäki Rangers
5.17

allows per match

MuurY
2.60
Kypärämäki Rangers
0.33

finishing

MuurY+0.00on par
Kypärämäki Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MuurY ↓

Kypärämäki Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
79%21%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

MuurY or draw
27%
MuurY or Kypärämäki Rangers
87%
Draw or Kypärämäki Rangers
86%

Winning margin

MuurY wins by 2+
6%
Kypärämäki Rangers wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

MuurY 1+ goals
83%
MuurY 2+ goals
53%
MuurY 3+ goals
26%
Kypärämäki Rangers 1+ goals
98%
Kypärämäki Rangers 2+ goals
89%
Kypärämäki Rangers 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

MuurY (draw refunded)
16%
Kypärämäki Rangers (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MuurY at home — creates 3.20, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Kypärämäki Rangers away — creates 5.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MuurY attack 3.20 + Kypärämäki Rangers defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kypärämäki Rangers attack 5.17 + MuurY defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 3.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

MuurY scores more
14%
level
13%
Kypärämäki Rangers scores more
73%

Kypärämäki Rangers at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kypärämäki Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: MuurY 1–3 Kypärämäki Rangers

Kypärämäki Rangers beat MuurY 3-1 in Suomen Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Vehkahalli in Jyväskylä.