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Muttenz vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Muttenz
Muttenz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Thun II
Thun II
5/17/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Sportplatz Margelacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Muttenz52%
×Draw21%
Thun II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muttenz
2.15
Thun II
1.50

Muttenz creates 43% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 45 away

creates per match

Muttenz
2.26
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Muttenz
1.68
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Muttenz+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muttenz ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Muttenz or draw
73%
Muttenz or Thun II
79%
Draw or Thun II
48%

Winning margin

Muttenz wins by 2+
31%
Thun II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Muttenz 1+ goals
88%
Muttenz 2+ goals
63%
Muttenz 3+ goals
36%
Thun II 1+ goals
78%
Thun II 2+ goals
44%
Thun II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Muttenz (draw refunded)
66%
Thun II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muttenz at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.68 · 57 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muttenz attack 2.26 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.15

Thun II attack 1.33 + Muttenz defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Muttenz scores more
52%
level
21%
Thun II scores more
27%

Muttenz at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Muttenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Muttenz 3–1 Thun II

Muttenz beat Thun II 3-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Margelacker in Muttenz.