Mutschelbach 3–1 SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Mutschelbach

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

9/10/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 7ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach34%

×Draw21%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MutschelbachExpected goals in this matchSG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.12

Mutschelbach

1.82

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.12

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

2.44

creates per match

2.29

1.94

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Mutschelbach

2.44

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

2.29

allows per match

Mutschelbach

1.94

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw

55%

Mutschelbach or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

79%

Draw or SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

66%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+

17%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals

84%

Mutschelbach 2+ goals

54%

Mutschelbach 3+ goals

27%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 1+ goals

88%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 2+ goals

62%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)

43%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.82

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach attack 2.29 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mutschelbach scores more

34%

level

21%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach scores more

45%

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff