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Mutschelbach vs Reutlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Reutlingen
Reutlingen
11/11/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach49%
×Draw21%
Reutlingen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
2.21
Reutlingen
1.74

Mutschelbach creates 27% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
Reutlingen
1.54

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
Reutlingen
1.98

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
Reutlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Reutlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
69%
Mutschelbach or Reutlingen
79%
Draw or Reutlingen
51%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
29%
Reutlingen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
89%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
65%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
38%
Reutlingen 1+ goals
82%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
52%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
61%
Reutlingen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Reutlingen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Reutlingen defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.21

Reutlingen attack 1.54 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
49%
level
21%
Reutlingen scores more
31%

Mutschelbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutschelbach vs Reutlingen

Reutlingen beat Mutschelbach 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.