Mutschelbach 3–1 Oberachern: Result & Stats

Mutschelbach

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Oberachern

10/28/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 15ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach48%

×Draw21%

Oberachern31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MutschelbachExpected goals in this matchOberachern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.66

Mutschelbach

2.09

Oberachern

1.66

Mutschelbach creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 92 away

2.44

creates per match

1.38

1.94

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Mutschelbach

2.44

Oberachern

1.38

allows per match

Mutschelbach

1.94

Oberachern

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Oberachern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw

69%

Mutschelbach or Oberachern

79%

Draw or Oberachern

52%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+

28%

Oberachern wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals

88%

Mutschelbach 2+ goals

62%

Mutschelbach 3+ goals

34%

Oberachern 1+ goals

81%

Oberachern 2+ goals

49%

Oberachern 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)

61%

Oberachern (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.09

Oberachern attack 1.38 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mutschelbach scores more

48%

level

21%

Oberachern scores more

31%

Mutschelbach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff