Mutschelbach 2–2 Hollenbach: Result & Stats

Mutschelbach

FT

2 – 2

Hollenbach

8/6/2022

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach52%

×Draw20%

Hollenbach27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MutschelbachExpected goals in this matchHollenbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.60

Mutschelbach

2.25

Hollenbach

1.60

Mutschelbach creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

2.44

creates per match

1.26

1.94

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Mutschelbach

2.44

Hollenbach

1.26

allows per match

Mutschelbach

1.94

Hollenbach

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par

Hollenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

Hollenbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw

73%

Mutschelbach or Hollenbach

80%

Draw or Hollenbach

48%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+

32%

Hollenbach wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals

89%

Mutschelbach 2+ goals

65%

Mutschelbach 3+ goals

39%

Hollenbach 1+ goals

80%

Hollenbach 2+ goals

47%

Hollenbach 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)

66%

Hollenbach (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

Hollenbach away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.07 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + Hollenbach defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hollenbach attack 1.26 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mutschelbach scores more

52%

level

20%

Hollenbach scores more

27%

Mutschelbach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff