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Mutschelbach vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Mutschelbach
Mutschelbach
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
D. Klemm 90+4'
L. Lindner 42', 26'
C. Batke 19'
J. Schmidtke 39'
A. Malaj 10'
3/4/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mutschelbach53%
×Draw20%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutschelbach
2.28
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.60

Mutschelbach creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mutschelbach
2.44
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.26

allows per match

Mutschelbach
1.94
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.12

finishing

Mutschelbach+0.00on par
FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutschelbach ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Mutschelbach or draw
73%
Mutschelbach or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
80%
Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
47%

Winning margin

Mutschelbach wins by 2+
32%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mutschelbach 1+ goals
90%
Mutschelbach 2+ goals
66%
Mutschelbach 3+ goals
39%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
80%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
47%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Mutschelbach (draw refunded)
66%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutschelbach at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutschelbach attack 2.44 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.28

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Mutschelbach defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mutschelbach scores more
53%
level
20%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
27%

Mutschelbach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mutschelbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Malaj
19'
C. Batke
26'
L. Lindner
39'
J. Schmidtke
42'
L. Lindner
90+4'
D. Klemm

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutschelbach vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen

Mutschelbach beat FC Rielasingen-Arlen 4-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 4, 2023.

Goals: A. Malaj (10'), C. Batke (19'), L. Lindner (26', 42'), J. Schmidtke (39'), D. Klemm (90+4').

The match was played at ATSV Mutschelbach Piston`s EDEKA-Arena in Karlsbad.