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Mutondo Stars vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
3/1/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mutondo Stars44%
×Draw30%
Prison Leopards27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutondo Stars
1.21
Prison Leopards
0.87

Mutondo Stars creates 39% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 95 away

creates per match

Mutondo Stars
1.02
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

Mutondo Stars
0.96
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutondo Stars ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mutondo Stars or draw
73%
Mutondo Stars or Prison Leopards
70%
Draw or Prison Leopards
56%

Winning margin

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
19%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
70%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
34%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
12%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
58%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
22%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
62%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutondo Stars at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutondo Stars attack 1.02 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + Mutondo Stars defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mutondo Stars scores more
44%
level
30%
Prison Leopards scores more
27%

Mutondo Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mutondo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Mutondo Stars 2–0 Prison Leopards

Mutondo Stars beat Prison Leopards 2-0 in Super League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.