Mutondo Stars 1–1 Nkana: Result & Stats

Mutondo Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nkana

8/25/2024

Super League · Round 2Levy Mwanawasa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mutondo Stars38%

×Draw31%

Nkana30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mutondo StarsExpected goals in this matchNkana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.89

Mutondo Stars

1.04

Nkana

0.89

Mutondo Stars creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

1.02

creates per match

0.82

0.96

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Mutondo Stars

1.02

Nkana

0.82

allows per match

Mutondo Stars

0.96

Nkana

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par

Nkana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutondo Stars ↓

Nkana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mutondo Stars or draw

70%

Mutondo Stars or Nkana

69%

Draw or Nkana

62%

Winning margin

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+

15%

Nkana wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals

65%

Mutondo Stars 2+ goals

28%

Mutondo Stars 3+ goals

9%

Nkana 1+ goals

59%

Nkana 2+ goals

22%

Nkana 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)

56%

Nkana (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutondo Stars at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Nkana away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.07 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutondo Stars attack 1.02 + Nkana defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Nkana attack 0.82 + Mutondo Stars defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mutondo Stars scores more

38%

level

31%

Nkana scores more

30%

Mutondo Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mutondo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff