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Mutondo Stars vs Green Eagles — Super League 2019

Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Green Eagles
Green Eagles
4/15/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mutondo Stars36%
×Draw32%
Green Eagles32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutondo Stars
0.98
Green Eagles
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mutondo Stars
1.02
Green Eagles
0.86

allows per match

Mutondo Stars
0.96
Green Eagles
0.93

finishing

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par
Green Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutondo Stars ↓

Green Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mutondo Stars or draw
68%
Mutondo Stars or Green Eagles
68%
Draw or Green Eagles
64%

Winning margin

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
13%
Green Eagles wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
62%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
26%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
8%
Green Eagles 1+ goals
60%
Green Eagles 2+ goals
23%
Green Eagles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
53%
Green Eagles (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutondo Stars at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Green Eagles away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutondo Stars attack 1.02 + Green Eagles defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.98

Green Eagles attack 0.86 + Mutondo Stars defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mutondo Stars scores more
36%
level
32%
Green Eagles scores more
32%

Mutondo Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mutondo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutondo Stars vs Green Eagles

Green Eagles beat Mutondo Stars 1-0 in Super League on April 15, 2026.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.