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Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes — Super League 2019

Mutondo Stars
Mutondo Stars
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
4/28/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 30Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mutondo Stars39%
×Draw31%
Green Buffaloes30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutondo Stars
1.07
Green Buffaloes
0.89

Mutondo Stars creates 20% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Mutondo Stars
1.02
Green Buffaloes
0.82

allows per match

Mutondo Stars
0.96
Green Buffaloes
1.13

finishing

Mutondo Stars+0.00on par
Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutondo Stars ↓

Green Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mutondo Stars or draw
70%
Mutondo Stars or Green Buffaloes
69%
Draw or Green Buffaloes
61%

Winning margin

Mutondo Stars wins by 2+
16%
Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mutondo Stars 1+ goals
66%
Mutondo Stars 2+ goals
29%
Mutondo Stars 3+ goals
9%
Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
59%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
22%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mutondo Stars (draw refunded)
57%
Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutondo Stars at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.96 · 51 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutondo Stars attack 1.02 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + Mutondo Stars defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mutondo Stars scores more
39%
level
31%
Green Buffaloes scores more
30%

Mutondo Stars at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mutondo Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes

Mutondo Stars beat Green Buffaloes 3-0 in Super League on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.