Mutilvera 1–3 Tudelano: Result & Stats

Mutilvera

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tudelano

H. Teres 76'

J. Albin 54'

F. C. Bonilla Martinez 17'

I. Alayeto 12'

1/18/2026

League #876 · Group 2 - 19Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Mutilvera29%

×Draw26%

Tudelano45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MutilveraExpected goals in this matchTudelano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.50

Mutilvera

1.14

Tudelano

1.50

Tudelano creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.14

creates per match

1.14

1.86

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mutilvera

1.14

Tudelano

1.14

allows per match

Mutilvera

1.86

Tudelano

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par

Tudelano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Tudelano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw

55%

Mutilvera or Tudelano

74%

Draw or Tudelano

71%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+

11%

Tudelano wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals

68%

Mutilvera 2+ goals

32%

Mutilvera 3+ goals

11%

Tudelano 1+ goals

78%

Tudelano 2+ goals

44%

Tudelano 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)

39%

Tudelano (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Tudelano away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 1.14 + Tudelano defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tudelano attack 1.14 + Mutilvera defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mutilvera scores more

29%

level

26%

Tudelano scores more

45%

Tudelano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tudelano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

I. Alayeto

17'

F. C. Bonilla Martinez

54'

J. Albin

76'

H. Teres

Mutilvera

Tudelano

Manager: Álvaro Garrido

Manager: Oskar Vales