Mutilvera 4–2 Subiza: Result & Stats

Mutilvera

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Subiza

Ayensa 86'

Dani Ederra 12'

Sebas 11'

Imanol Barce 9'

Asier Izura 52'

Joseba Valencia 26'

9/28/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mutilvera59%

×Draw22%

Subiza19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MutilveraExpected goals in this matchSubiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.95

Mutilvera

1.89

Subiza

0.95

Mutilvera creates 99% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 93 away

2.58

creates per match

1.32

0.58

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Mutilvera

2.58

Subiza

1.32

allows per match

Mutilvera

0.58

Subiza

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par

Subiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Subiza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw

81%

Mutilvera or Subiza

78%

Draw or Subiza

41%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+

35%

Subiza wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals

85%

Mutilvera 2+ goals

56%

Mutilvera 3+ goals

29%

Subiza 1+ goals

61%

Subiza 2+ goals

25%

Subiza 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)

76%

Subiza (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Subiza away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 2.58 + Subiza defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Subiza attack 1.32 + Mutilvera defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mutilvera scores more

59%

level

22%

Subiza scores more

19%

Mutilvera at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

11'

12'

26'

42'

Eder Abaurrea← Javi López

52'

Asier Izura

61'

Ayensa← Losantos

61'

Iker San Martín← Edu Izura

69'

Pablo García← Mikel Urbicain

74'

Eiande Argandoña← Sergio Delgado

78'

Pablo Alonso← Miguel Iribarren

86'

Ayensa

Mutilvera

Subiza

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Andoni Alonso

42'▲Eder Abaurrea←▼Javi López

61'▲Ayensa←▼Losantos

74'▲Eiande Argandoña←▼Sergio Delgado

Mutilvera substitutes

AbaurreaAyensaArgandoña

Manager: Alejandro Gastaminza

61'▲Iker San Martín←▼Edu Izura

69'▲Pablo García←▼Mikel Urbicain

78'▲Pablo Alonso←▼Miguel Iribarren

Subiza substitutes

MartínGarcíaAlonso

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Mutilvera 4–2 Subiza

Mutilvera beat Subiza 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on September 28, 2019.

Goals: Imanol Barce (9'), Sebas (11'), Dani Ederra (12'), Joseba Valencia (26'), Asier Izura (52'), Ayensa (86').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.

Mutilvera vs Subiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Mutilvera 4–2 Subiza