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Mutilvera vs Portugalete — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Portugalete
Portugalete
5/5/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mutilvera48%
×Draw29%
Portugalete23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
1.26
Portugalete
0.77

Mutilvera creates 64% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
1.23
Portugalete
0.86

allows per match

Mutilvera
0.69
Portugalete
1.29

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Portugalete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
77%
Mutilvera or Portugalete
71%
Draw or Portugalete
52%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
22%
Portugalete wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
72%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
36%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
13%
Portugalete 1+ goals
54%
Portugalete 2+ goals
18%
Portugalete 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
68%
Portugalete (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Portugalete away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 1.23 + Portugalete defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Portugalete attack 0.86 + Mutilvera defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mutilvera scores more
48%
level
29%
Portugalete scores more
23%

Mutilvera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Mutilvera 1–0 Portugalete

Mutilvera beat Portugalete 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.