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Mutilvera vs Peña Azagresa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
CANC
00:00
Peña Azagresa
Peña Azagresa
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 33Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mutilvera73%
×Draw16%
Peña Azagresa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
2.50
Peña Azagresa
0.86

Mutilvera creates 191% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
2.58
Peña Azagresa
1.14

allows per match

Mutilvera
0.58
Peña Azagresa
2.43

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Peña Azagresa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Peña Azagresa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
89%
Mutilvera or Peña Azagresa
84%
Draw or Peña Azagresa
27%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
50%
Peña Azagresa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
92%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
71%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
45%
Peña Azagresa 1+ goals
58%
Peña Azagresa 2+ goals
21%
Peña Azagresa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
87%
Peña Azagresa (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Peña Azagresa away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 2.58 + Peña Azagresa defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.50

Peña Azagresa attack 1.14 + Mutilvera defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Mutilvera scores more
73%
level
16%
Peña Azagresa scores more
11%

Mutilvera at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mutilvera host Peña Azagresa

April 12, 2020: Mutilvera take on Peña Azagresa in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mutilvera host Peña Azagresa at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.