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Mutilvera vs Murchante — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Murchante
Murchante
10/26/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 10Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mutilvera65%
×Draw21%
Murchante14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
2.00
Murchante
0.81

Mutilvera creates 147% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 41 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
2.58
Murchante
1.05

allows per match

Mutilvera
0.58
Murchante
1.41

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Murchante+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Murchante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
86%
Mutilvera or Murchante
79%
Draw or Murchante
35%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
40%
Murchante wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
86%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
59%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
32%
Murchante 1+ goals
56%
Murchante 2+ goals
19%
Murchante 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
82%
Murchante (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Murchante away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 2.58 + Murchante defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 2.00

Murchante attack 1.05 + Mutilvera defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mutilvera scores more
65%
level
21%
Murchante scores more
14%

Mutilvera at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Mutilvera 2–0 Murchante

Mutilvera beat Murchante 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.