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Mutilvera vs Deportivo Alavés II — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
5/26/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mutilvera57%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Alavés II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
1.51
Deportivo Alavés II
0.70

Mutilvera creates 116% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 28 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
1.23
Deportivo Alavés II
0.71

allows per match

Mutilvera
0.69
Deportivo Alavés II
1.79

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
83%
Mutilvera or Deportivo Alavés II
74%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
43%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
78%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
44%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
19%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
50%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
16%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
77%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 1.23 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.51

Deportivo Alavés II attack 0.71 + Mutilvera defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mutilvera scores more
57%
level
26%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
17%

Mutilvera at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Mutilvera 1–0 Deportivo Alavés II

Mutilvera beat Deportivo Alavés II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.