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Mutilvera vs Corellano — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Corellano
Corellano
11/30/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mutilvera69%
×Draw19%
Corellano12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
2.20
Corellano
0.79

Mutilvera creates 178% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
2.58
Corellano
1.00

allows per match

Mutilvera
0.58
Corellano
1.82

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Corellano+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Corellano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
88%
Mutilvera or Corellano
81%
Draw or Corellano
31%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
45%
Corellano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
89%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
64%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
37%
Corellano 1+ goals
55%
Corellano 2+ goals
19%
Corellano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
85%
Corellano (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Corellano away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 2.58 + Corellano defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.20

Corellano attack 1.00 + Mutilvera defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mutilvera scores more
69%
level
19%
Corellano scores more
12%

Mutilvera at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutilvera vs Corellano

Mutilvera beat Corellano 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.