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Mutilvera vs Baztán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Mutilvera
Mutilvera
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Baztán
Baztán
2/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 26Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mutilvera70%
×Draw18%
Baztán12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mutilvera
2.20
Baztán
0.76

Mutilvera creates 189% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mutilvera
2.58
Baztán
0.94

allows per match

Mutilvera
0.58
Baztán
1.81

finishing

Mutilvera+0.00on par
Baztán+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mutilvera ↓

Baztán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mutilvera or draw
88%
Mutilvera or Baztán
82%
Draw or Baztán
30%

Winning margin

Mutilvera wins by 2+
46%
Baztán wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mutilvera 1+ goals
89%
Mutilvera 2+ goals
64%
Mutilvera 3+ goals
37%
Baztán 1+ goals
53%
Baztán 2+ goals
18%
Baztán 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mutilvera (draw refunded)
86%
Baztán (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mutilvera at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.58 · 31 matches

Baztán away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mutilvera attack 2.58 + Baztán defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.20

Baztán attack 0.94 + Mutilvera defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mutilvera scores more
70%
level
18%
Baztán scores more
12%

Mutilvera at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mutilvera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mutilvera vs Baztán

Mutilvera beat Baztán 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Valle de Aranguren in Mutilva Baja.