Musselburgh Athletic 1–2 Newtongrange Star

Musselburgh Athletic

AET

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Newtongrange Star

9/17/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundOlivebank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic43%

×Draw21%

Newtongrange Star36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Musselburgh AthleticExpected goals in this matchNewtongrange Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.90

Musselburgh Athletic

2.10

Newtongrange Star

1.90

Musselburgh Athletic creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.80

creates per match

3.00

0.80

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic

2.80

Newtongrange Star

3.00

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic

0.80

Newtongrange Star

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Newtongrange Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Newtongrange Star →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw

64%

Musselburgh Athletic or Newtongrange Star

79%

Draw or Newtongrange Star

57%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

24%

Newtongrange Star wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

88%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

62%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

35%

Newtongrange Star 1+ goals

85%

Newtongrange Star 2+ goals

56%

Newtongrange Star 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

55%

Newtongrange Star (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Newtongrange Star away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Newtongrange Star defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.10

Newtongrange Star attack 3.00 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

43%

level

21%

Newtongrange Star scores more

36%

Musselburgh Athletic at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff