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Musselburgh Athletic vs Forfar Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Musselburgh Athletic
Musselburgh Athletic
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
J. Todd 43'
C. Slater 87'
S. Morrison 46'
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic67%
×Draw19%
Forfar Athletic15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musselburgh Athletic
2.27
Forfar Athletic
0.96

Musselburgh Athletic creates 136% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic
2.80
Forfar Athletic
1.13

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic
0.80
Forfar Athletic
1.75

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par
Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Forfar Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw
85%
Musselburgh Athletic or Forfar Athletic
81%
Draw or Forfar Athletic
33%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+
43%
Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals
90%
Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals
66%
Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals
39%
Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
62%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
25%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)
82%
Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.27

Forfar Athletic attack 1.13 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more
67%
level
19%
Forfar Athletic scores more
15%

Musselburgh Athletic at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
J. Todd
46'
S. Morrison
87'
C. Slater
Musselburgh
Forfar
L. Burns
Manager: L. Burns
Jim Weir
Manager: Jim Weir

Match Recap: Musselburgh Athletic vs Forfar Athletic

Forfar Athletic beat Musselburgh Athletic 2-1 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Todd (43'), S. Morrison (46'), C. Slater (87').