Musselburgh Athletic 1–0 Darvel: Result & Stats

Musselburgh Athletic

AET

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Darvel

Court 98'

9/28/2024

FA Cup · 1st RoundOlivebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic47%

×Draw21%

Darvel32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Musselburgh AthleticExpected goals in this matchDarvel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.67

Musselburgh Athletic

2.04

Darvel

1.67

Musselburgh Athletic creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

2.80

creates per match

2.55

0.80

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic

2.80

Darvel

2.55

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic

0.80

Darvel

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Darvel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Darvel →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw

68%

Musselburgh Athletic or Darvel

79%

Draw or Darvel

53%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

26%

Darvel wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

87%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

60%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

33%

Darvel 1+ goals

81%

Darvel 2+ goals

50%

Darvel 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

59%

Darvel (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Darvel away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Darvel defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 2.04

Darvel attack 2.55 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

47%

level

21%

Darvel scores more

32%

Musselburgh Athletic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

98'

Court

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Musselburgh Athletic 1–0 Darvel

Musselburgh Athletic beat Darvel 1-0 in FA Cup on September 28, 2024.

Goals: Court (98').

The match was played at Olivebank Arena in Musselburgh.

Musselburgh Athletic vs Darvel — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Musselburgh Athletic 1–0 Darvel