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Musselburgh Athletic vs Coldstream — FA Cup 2019

Musselburgh Athletic
Musselburgh Athletic
FT
6 – 0
Coldstream
Coldstream
9/2/2023FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundOlivebank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic76%
×Draw14%
Coldstream11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musselburgh Athletic
3.15
Coldstream
1.15

Musselburgh Athletic creates 174% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic
2.80
Coldstream
1.50

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic
0.80
Coldstream
3.50

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par
Coldstream+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Coldstream →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw
89%
Musselburgh Athletic or Coldstream
86%
Draw or Coldstream
24%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+
56%
Coldstream wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals
96%
Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals
81%
Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals
59%
Coldstream 1+ goals
68%
Coldstream 2+ goals
32%
Coldstream 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)
88%
Coldstream (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Coldstream away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Coldstream defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.15

Coldstream attack 1.50 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more
76%
level
14%
Coldstream scores more
11%

Musselburgh Athletic at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Musselburgh Athletic vs Coldstream

Musselburgh Athletic beat Coldstream 6-0 in FA Cup on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Olivebank Stadium in Musselburgh.