Musselburgh Athletic 2–1 Caledonian Braves

Musselburgh Athletic

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Caledonian Braves

J. Barker 65', 57'

R. Murray 32'

10/26/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundOlivebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic65%

×Draw19%

Caledonian Braves16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Musselburgh AthleticExpected goals in this matchCaledonian Braves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.06

Musselburgh Athletic

2.31

Caledonian Braves

1.06

Musselburgh Athletic creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.80

creates per match

1.33

0.80

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic

2.80

Caledonian Braves

1.33

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic

0.80

Caledonian Braves

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Caledonian Braves →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw

84%

Musselburgh Athletic or Caledonian Braves

81%

Draw or Caledonian Braves

35%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

42%

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

90%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

67%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

40%

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

65%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

29%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

80%

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Caledonian Braves away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Caledonian Braves defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.31

Caledonian Braves attack 1.33 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

65%

level

19%

Caledonian Braves scores more

16%

Musselburgh Athletic at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

R. Murray

47'

A. Dempster

57'

J. Court← C. Stevenson

57'

J. Barker↳ J. Smith

65'

J. Barker↳ G. Auriemma

74'

L. Walker← K. Gkegka

82'

M. O'Connor← G. Auriemma

87'

J. McDowall← R. McLaren

Musselburgh

Caledonian

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: L. Burns

57'▲J. Court←▼C. Stevenson

82'▲M. O'Connor←▼G. Auriemma

Musselburgh Athletic substitutes

9Court25O'Connor31McCathie11Knox23Reid14Burns4Myles19Dickson

Manager: R. Waddell

74'▲L. Walker←▼K. Gkegka

87'▲J. McDowall←▼R. McLaren

Caledonian Braves substitutes

20Walker12McDowall22McArthur75King19Speirs15Clocherty18Gemmell10McLaren

FA Cup: Musselburgh Athletic 2–1 Caledonian Braves

Musselburgh Athletic beat Caledonian Braves 2-1 in FA Cup on October 26, 2024.

Goals: R. Murray (32'), J. Barker (57', 65').

The match was played at Olivebank Arena in Musselburgh.

Musselburgh Athletic vs Caledonian Braves — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Musselburgh Athletic 2–1 Caledonian Braves