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Musselburgh Athletic vs Bonnyton Thistle — FA Cup 2019

Musselburgh Athletic
Musselburgh Athletic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bonnyton Thistle
Bonnyton Thistle
9/27/2025FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundOlivebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic84%
×Draw10%
Bonnyton Thistle5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Musselburgh Athletic
3.23
Bonnyton Thistle
0.74

Musselburgh Athletic creates 336% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic
2.80
Bonnyton Thistle
0.67

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic
0.80
Bonnyton Thistle
3.67

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par
Bonnyton Thistle+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Bonnyton Thistle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw
95%
Musselburgh Athletic or Bonnyton Thistle
90%
Draw or Bonnyton Thistle
16%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+
66%
Bonnyton Thistle wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals
96%
Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals
82%
Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals
61%
Bonnyton Thistle 1+ goals
52%
Bonnyton Thistle 2+ goals
17%
Bonnyton Thistle 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)
94%
Bonnyton Thistle (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Bonnyton Thistle away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Bonnyton Thistle defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.23

Bonnyton Thistle attack 0.67 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more
84%
level
10%
Bonnyton Thistle scores more
5%

Musselburgh Athletic at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Musselburgh Athletic vs Bonnyton Thistle

Musselburgh Athletic beat Bonnyton Thistle 2-0 in FA Cup on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Olivebank Arena in Musselburgh.