Musselburgh Athletic 3–1 Bo'ness United

Musselburgh Athletic

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bo'ness United

C. Stevenson 87' (pen)

C. Donaldson 61'

N. Evans 11'

L. Stenhouse 27'

11/30/2024

FA Cup · 3rd RoundOlivebank Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Musselburgh Athletic62%

×Draw19%

Bo'ness United19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Musselburgh AthleticExpected goals in this matchBo'ness United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.20

Musselburgh Athletic

2.30

Bo'ness United

1.20

Musselburgh Athletic creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

2.80

creates per match

1.60

0.80

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Musselburgh Athletic

2.80

Bo'ness United

1.60

allows per match

Musselburgh Athletic

0.80

Bo'ness United

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Musselburgh Athletic+0.00on par

Bo'ness United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musselburgh Athletic ↓

Bo'ness United →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Musselburgh Athletic or draw

81%

Musselburgh Athletic or Bo'ness United

81%

Draw or Bo'ness United

38%

Winning margin

Musselburgh Athletic wins by 2+

39%

Bo'ness United wins by 2+

Team goals

Musselburgh Athletic 1+ goals

90%

Musselburgh Athletic 2+ goals

67%

Musselburgh Athletic 3+ goals

40%

Bo'ness United 1+ goals

70%

Bo'ness United 2+ goals

34%

Bo'ness United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Musselburgh Athletic (draw refunded)

77%

Bo'ness United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Musselburgh Athletic at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Bo'ness United away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Musselburgh Athletic attack 2.80 + Bo'ness United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.30

Bo'ness United attack 1.60 + Musselburgh Athletic defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Musselburgh Athletic scores more

62%

level

19%

Bo'ness United scores more

19%

Musselburgh Athletic at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Musselburgh Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

N. Evans↳ C. Stevenson

15'

M. Gemmel

27'

28'

52'

57'

59'

J. Court← N. Reid

61'

C. Donaldson↳ Z. Khan

63'

L. Duffy← R. Stevenson

63'

K. Johnston← M. Gemmell

63'

S. Osadolor← L. Hawkins

82'

J. Henderson

87'

C. StevensonPenalty

90'

90+1'

90+5'

90+6'

90+1'

J. Myles← G. Auriemma

Musselburgh

Bo'ness

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽A

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Burns

59'▲J. Court←▼N. Reid

90+1'▲J. Myles←▼G. Auriemma

Musselburgh Athletic substitutes

9Court4Myles31McCathie11Knox10Smith14Burns19Dickson12Middleton

Manager: S. Hunter

63'▲L. Duffy←▼R. Stevenson

63'▲K. Johnston←▼M. Gemmell

63'▲S. Osadolor←▼L. Hawkins

Bo'ness United substitutes

14Duffy12Johnston17Osadolor15Hamilton21Ritchie16McLinden