Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mushuc Runa SC vs Universidad Catolica — Liga Pro 2026

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
11/25/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 14Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC37%
×Draw26%
Universidad Catolica37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.34
Universidad Catolica
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 118 home / 131 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.43
Universidad Catolica
1.41

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.23
Universidad Catolica
1.25

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
63%
Mushuc Runa SC or Universidad Catolica
74%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
63%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
17%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
74%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
39%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
15%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
73%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
38%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
51%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Universidad Catolica attack 1.41 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
37%
level
26%
Universidad Catolica scores more
37%

Mushuc Runa SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushuc Runa SC vs Universidad Catolica

Universidad Catolica beat Mushuc Runa SC 2-0 in Liga Pro on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.