Mushuc Runa SC 1–2 Universidad Catolica

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Universidad Catolica

J. Carabalí 43'

D. Armas 77'

G. De Los Santos 66'

8/26/2020

Liga Pro · 1° Turno - 8Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC39%

×Draw29%

Universidad Catolica32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.02

Mushuc Runa SC

1.15

Universidad Catolica

1.02

Mushuc Runa SC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.16

creates per match

1.18

0.87

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.16

Universidad Catolica

1.18

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

0.87

Universidad Catolica

1.13

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less

Universidad Catolica-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

68%

Mushuc Runa SC or Universidad Catolica

71%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

61%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

16%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

68%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

32%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

11%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

64%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

27%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

55%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.13 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Universidad Catolica attack 1.18 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

39%

level

29%

Universidad Catolica scores more

32%

Mushuc Runa SC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

L. Romero

40'

H. Orzan

43'

J. Carabalí↳ L. Romero

54'

C. Ona

59'

L. Estupiñán← J. Chala

59'

J. Tévez← N. Bazán

65'

G. Mina← J. Carabalí

66'

G. De Los Santos↳ D. Armas

70'

S.

77'

D. Armas↳ A. López

81'

M. Castillo← J. Mendoza

84'

K. Minda← F. Martínez

87'

H. Galindez

89'

G. Cortez← J. Carabalí

89'

B. Vides← C. Oña

90+7'

L. Estupinan

Mushuc

Universidad

12

Galíndez

17

Mosquera

25

A

López

6

⚽

Santos

10

▼

Martínez

8

⚽A

Armas

5

▼

Oña

14

▼

Carabalí

16

Chalá

11

▼

Chala

31

▼

Bazán

1

Brun

27

A

Romero

20

Quilumba

3

▼

24

15

17

4

9

11

19

⚽

▼

Carabalí

Manager: R. Dillon

65'▲G. Mina←▼J. Carabalí

81'▲M. Castillo←▼J. Mendoza

Mushuc Runa SC substitutes

8Mina70Castillo7Bone16Ortíz23Incorvaia13Carrasco50Rueda21Ortíz6Méndez30Jiménez

Manager: S. Escobar

59'▲L. Estupiñán←▼J. Chala

59'▲J. Tévez←▼N. Bazán

84'▲K. Minda←▼F. Martínez

89'▲G. Cortez←▼J. Carabalí

89'▲B. Vides←▼C. Oña

Universidad Catolica substitutes

18Estupiñán23Tévez4Minda15Cortez32Vides13Oña20Chicaiza1Cuero2Rivera28Insaurralde9Jesús21Castillo