Mushuc Runa SC 2–0 Emelec: Result & Stats

Mushuc Runa SC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Emelec

3/22/2026

Liga Pro · Round 6Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC41%

×Draw26%

Emelec33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushuc Runa SCExpected goals in this matchEmelec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.20

Mushuc Runa SC

1.38

Emelec

1.20

Mushuc Runa SC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 132 away

1.43

creates per match

1.17

1.23

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.43

Emelec

1.17

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC

1.23

Emelec

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Emelec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw

67%

Mushuc Runa SC or Emelec

74%

Draw or Emelec

59%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+

19%

Emelec wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals

75%

Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals

40%

Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals

16%

Emelec 1+ goals

70%

Emelec 2+ goals

34%

Emelec 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)

56%

Emelec (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + Emelec defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Emelec attack 1.17 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more

41%

level

26%

Emelec scores more

33%

Mushuc Runa SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff