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Mushuc Runa SC vs Emelec — Liga Pro 2026

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Emelec
Emelec
5/22/2021Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 13Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC50%
×Draw27%
Emelec22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.40
Emelec
0.83

Mushuc Runa SC creates 69% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.16
Emelec
0.80

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
0.87
Emelec
1.63

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC-0.45scores less
Emelec+0.20scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
78%
Mushuc Runa SC or Emelec
73%
Draw or Emelec
50%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
25%
Emelec wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
75%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
41%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
17%
Emelec 1+ goals
56%
Emelec 2+ goals
20%
Emelec 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
69%
Emelec (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.87 · 7 matches

Emelec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.16 + Emelec defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Emelec attack 0.80 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
50%
level
27%
Emelec scores more
22%

Mushuc Runa SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Mushuc Runa SC 1–2 Emelec

Emelec beat Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 in Liga Pro on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.