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Mushuc Runa SC vs CD Olmedo — Liga Pro 2018

Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CD Olmedo
CD Olmedo
11/19/2020Liga ProLiga Pro · 2° Girone - 8Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mushuc Runa SC54%
×Draw23%
CD Olmedo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushuc Runa SC
1.88
CD Olmedo
1.18

Mushuc Runa SC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.43
CD Olmedo
1.13

allows per match

Mushuc Runa SC
1.23
CD Olmedo
2.33

finishing

Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par
CD Olmedo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushuc Runa SC ↓

CD Olmedo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mushuc Runa SC or draw
76%
Mushuc Runa SC or CD Olmedo
77%
Draw or CD Olmedo
46%

Winning margin

Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
31%
CD Olmedo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
85%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
56%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
29%
CD Olmedo 1+ goals
69%
CD Olmedo 2+ goals
33%
CD Olmedo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
69%
CD Olmedo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushuc Runa SC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 118 matches

CD Olmedo away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushuc Runa SC attack 1.43 + CD Olmedo defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.88

CD Olmedo attack 1.13 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mushuc Runa SC scores more
54%
level
23%
CD Olmedo scores more
24%

Mushuc Runa SC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mushuc Runa SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 CD Olmedo

Mushuc Runa SC and CD Olmedo drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on November 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa in Ambato.