Mushowani Stars 2–2 Platinum: Result & Stats

Mushowani Stars

FT

2 – 2

Platinum

4/15/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 3Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mushowani Stars30%

×Draw30%

Platinum40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mushowani StarsExpected goals in this matchPlatinum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.14

Mushowani Stars

0.96

Platinum

1.14

Platinum creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

1.24

creates per match

0.93

1.35

allows per match

0.68

creates per match

Mushowani Stars

1.24

Platinum

0.93

allows per match

Mushowani Stars

1.35

Platinum

0.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par

Platinum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushowani Stars ↓

Platinum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mushowani Stars or draw

60%

Mushowani Stars or Platinum

70%

Draw or Platinum

70%

Winning margin

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+

11%

Platinum wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals

62%

Mushowani Stars 2+ goals

25%

Mushowani Stars 3+ goals

7%

Platinum 1+ goals

68%

Platinum 2+ goals

32%

Platinum 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)

43%

Platinum (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushowani Stars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Platinum away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushowani Stars attack 1.24 + Platinum defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.96

Platinum attack 0.93 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mushowani Stars scores more

30%

level

30%

Platinum scores more

40%

Platinum at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Platinum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff