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Mushowani Stars vs CAPS United — Premier Soccer League 2026

Mushowani Stars
Mushowani Stars
FT
1 – 2
CAPS United
CAPS United
10/6/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 25Trojan Mine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mushowani Stars36%
×Draw28%
CAPS United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mushowani Stars
1.20
CAPS United
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 96 away

creates per match

Mushowani Stars
1.24
CAPS United
1.02

allows per match

Mushowani Stars
1.35
CAPS United
1.16

finishing

Mushowani Stars+0.00on par
CAPS United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mushowani Stars ↓

CAPS United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mushowani Stars or draw
64%
Mushowani Stars or CAPS United
72%
Draw or CAPS United
64%

Winning margin

Mushowani Stars wins by 2+
15%
CAPS United wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mushowani Stars 1+ goals
70%
Mushowani Stars 2+ goals
34%
Mushowani Stars 3+ goals
12%
CAPS United 1+ goals
70%
CAPS United 2+ goals
33%
CAPS United 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mushowani Stars (draw refunded)
50%
CAPS United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mushowani Stars at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

CAPS United away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mushowani Stars attack 1.24 + CAPS United defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

CAPS United attack 1.02 + Mushowani Stars defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mushowani Stars scores more
36%
level
28%
CAPS United scores more
36%

Mushowani Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mushowani Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mushowani Stars vs CAPS United

CAPS United beat Mushowani Stars 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Trojan Mine Stadium in Bindura.