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Muscat vs Sohar — Professional League 2019

Muscat
Muscat
FT
3 – 0
Sohar
Sohar
3/14/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 23Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Muscat37%
×Draw28%
Sohar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muscat
1.21
Sohar
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 78 away

creates per match

Muscat
1.03
Sohar
1.10

allows per match

Muscat
1.28
Sohar
1.38

finishing

Muscat+0.00on par
Sohar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muscat ↓

Sohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Muscat or draw
64%
Muscat or Sohar
72%
Draw or Sohar
63%

Winning margin

Muscat wins by 2+
16%
Sohar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Muscat 1+ goals
70%
Muscat 2+ goals
34%
Muscat 3+ goals
12%
Sohar 1+ goals
70%
Sohar 2+ goals
33%
Sohar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Muscat (draw refunded)
51%
Sohar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muscat at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Sohar away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muscat attack 1.03 + Sohar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sohar attack 1.10 + Muscat defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Muscat scores more
37%
level
28%
Sohar scores more
36%

Muscat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Muscat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muscat vs Sohar

Muscat beat Sohar 3-0 in Professional League on March 14, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.