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Muscat vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

Muscat
Muscat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
9/24/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 4Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Muscat34%
×Draw24%
Nimba Kwado42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muscat
1.46
Nimba Kwado
1.65

Nimba Kwado creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 50 away

creates per match

Muscat
1.62
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

Muscat
2.15
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

Muscat+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muscat ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Muscat or draw
58%
Muscat or Nimba Kwado
76%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
66%

Winning margin

Muscat wins by 2+
16%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Muscat 1+ goals
77%
Muscat 2+ goals
43%
Muscat 3+ goals
18%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
81%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
49%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Muscat (draw refunded)
45%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muscat at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muscat attack 1.62 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Muscat defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Muscat scores more
34%
level
24%
Nimba Kwado scores more
42%

Nimba Kwado at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Muscat 0–0 Nimba Kwado

Muscat and Nimba Kwado drew 0-0 in LFA First Division on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.