Musanze 0–0 Vision: Result & Stats

Musanze

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vision

4/19/2025

National Soccer League · Round 24Ubworoherane Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Musanze55%

×Draw26%

Vision18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MusanzeExpected goals in this matchVision

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.73

Musanze

1.48

Vision

0.73

Musanze creates 103% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

1.15

creates per match

0.67

0.78

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Musanze

1.15

Vision

0.67

allows per match

Musanze

0.78

Vision

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Musanze+0.00on par

Vision+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Musanze ↓

Vision →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Musanze or draw

82%

Musanze or Vision

74%

Draw or Vision

45%

Winning margin

Musanze wins by 2+

28%

Vision wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Musanze 1+ goals

77%

Musanze 2+ goals

43%

Musanze 3+ goals

19%

Vision 1+ goals

52%

Vision 2+ goals

17%

Vision 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Musanze (draw refunded)

75%

Vision (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Musanze at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Vision away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Musanze attack 1.15 + Vision defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Vision attack 0.67 + Musanze defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Musanze scores more

55%

level

26%

Vision scores more

18%

Musanze at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Musanze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff